EUR/USD

The various summits, conferences, meetings, and announcements in the EU Zone have all disappointed. The rallies that accompany these “risk on” moves have been getting shorter and shorter each time the EU attempts to come up with a solution. The solutions have all been of the “band aid” variety, and until the area gets serious about fiscal union, the Euro will suffer more. Another thing that is weighing on the Euro is the austerity that much of the area is going through. This will have the EU in recession for the start of the year, and the ECB looks set to cut rates even further more. With this in mind, this pair should be lower. I suspect we will see 1.25 by the end of the quarter.

FROM COLLIN TWIGGS:

This is a 20-year (monthly) chart of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. The dollar has declined in a primary down-trend since early 2008. Long-term support at 80 failed to halt the fall and the greenback is now ranging between ¥75 and ¥80.
The down-trend is in its fourth year and large bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a reaction. Penetration of the declining trendline would strengthen the signal and breakout above 80 would confirm, offering a long-term target of 100.

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Pivot: 1775.00

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1775 with 1753 & 1744 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1775 will call for 1786 & 1794.

Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bearish bias.

Pivot: 1.0165

Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.0165 with targets @ 1.003 & 1 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.0165 look for further upside with 1.0225 & 1.026 as targets.

Comment: As long as 1.0165 is resistance, likely decline to 1.003.

Pivot: 1.5825.

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1.5825 with targets @ 1.568 & 1.566.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1.5825 will call for a rebound towards 1.5875 & 1.593.

Comment: The pair is pulling back on its new resistance ahead of further weakness.

EUR/USD intraday: key ST resistance at 1.3555

Pivot: 1.3555. Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1.3555 with 1.3425 & 1.338 in sight. Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1.3555 will call for 1.36 & 1.364. Comment: The pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance. Trend: ST Consolidation; MT Bearish

November 16, 2011
Current level - 1.5759

The pair is in a downtrend from 1.6616 high. Technical indicators are descending and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.6209 and 1.6098.

Finally, the pair broke through 1.5850 major support and current outlook is bearish, towards 1.5630, en route to 1.5530. Major resistance on the upisde is 1.5850.

EURUSD : Normally Indicating Buy Signal in the long run...

(Thu April 28 2011, 8:30am NY Time EST)
US Advance GDP q/q  : Forecast 1.9%  - Previous 3.9%
ACTION: USD/JPY BUY 2.2%  and   SELL 1.6%
The Trade Plan

We are looking for a minimum deviation of 0.3% on the forecasted figure of 1.9%. Therefore if we get a 2.2% on the first quarter GDP, it would be US Dollar positive. We will BUY USD/JPY. However, if we get a 1.6% release or worse, then we would be SELLING USD/JPY or BUYING EUR/USD.

UK Revised GDP q/q today :
Forecast 0.5%  and  Previous -0.5%
 
ACTION: 
BUY GBP/USD if 0.8% 
SELL GBP/USD if 0.2%

The Trade Plan
Our deviation for today’s trade is 0.3% to SELL and 0.3% to BUY. We’ll look to possibly SELL GBP/USD at 0.2% of release figure or worse; BUY GBP/USD at 0.8% of release figure or better.

Important News release to Trade with

TRADE THE SPIKE

1. We wait for the news release to come out. Based on the release number we will enter the market immediately if our expected deviation is hit.
2. We will try to catch the initial spike move, whole or part of the move, and get out of the trade at top of the expected movement range (40-50 pips.)
3. A stop/loss will be placed 15 pips from the pre-release price. This is the price level just before the news release. Our take profit order will be once again the top of the expected movement range.

TRADE THE RETRACEMENT

1. We wait for the news release to come out. Based on the release number we will determine “where” to get into the market if our expected deviation is hit.
2. We will wait for the market to retrace back within 10~15 pips of the pre-release price level. Sometimes when we have a huge deviation, we can enter the market at 20~30 pips from the pre-release level, but it would be based on discretion. Market will usually retrace within the first 5~30 minutes, if a retracement is to take place. A lot of times it is important to take consideration of the context of the news when trading.
3. A stop/loss will be placed 20~25 pips from the entry price. Therefore, it is very important to wait for the market to come back because if we enter too soon, we might get stopped out.